High 3 · Reading series
Lesson 10 · What the Chart Did Not Predict
Audio track 10
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Our class used past rainfall records to draw a chart of how often the school field became muddy. We predicted that the sports event next month would probably be held on dry ground. The prediction seemed reasonable until a strong storm arrived the night before.
Some students called the chart useless. Our teacher asked a different question: had we understood what it was designed to estimate? It showed patterns from earlier months, not a promise about a particular day. It had not included a forecast for an unusual storm.
We reviewed the record and noticed another weakness. For several years, nobody had written down whether the field had been repaired before an event. The same amount of rain could lead to a different result after drainage work.
For the rescheduled event, we used current weather information and checked the field directly. The old chart still helped us think about longer patterns, but it could not replace a decision made close to the day. A prediction becomes useful when we know its horizon and its limits.
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After reading, state the main idea in one sentence and find a line that supports it.
Chinese translation
我们班利用往年的降雨记录画图，研究校园运动场有多常变泥泞。我们预测下个月的体育活动很可能在干燥场地举行。这个判断本来合理，直到活动前一晚来了一场强风暴。
有同学说图表毫无用处，老师却问：我们理解它原本要估计什么吗？它展示过去几个月的规律，不是对某一个具体日期的承诺，也没纳入异常风暴的最新预报。
复查记录时，我们还发现另一弱点：有些年份没有记下活动前是否修过场地。同样的雨量，排水工程完成后也可能产生不同结果。
活动改期后，我们使用最新天气信息，并直接查看场地。旧图仍有助于思考较长期的规律，却不能代替临近活动时作的决定。预测只有在看清其时间范围和局限时，才真正有用。
Key words and expressions
Key terms have Chinese explanations. Hover over dotted words in the English passage for word help and pronunciation when available.
- rainfall
- 降雨量；绘图所用的历史记录。
- predicted
- 预测；原以为场地会干。
- reasonable
- 合理的；不等于结果必然如此。
- estimate
- 估计；图表只反映过去模式。
- particular
- 特定的；不能保证某一天。
- unusual
- 异常的；风暴不在旧图预期内。
- weakness
- 弱点；缺少场地维修记录。
- drainage
- 排水；工程改变同雨量结果。
- rescheduled
- 改期的；比赛延期举行。
- horizon
- 时间范围；判断预测适用多久。
Background notes (Chinese)
历史数据可估计一般规律，不能保证某一日不下暴雨。决策临近时还需最新预报与现场检查，图表也应记录场地维修等条件。